Welcome!


You have been invited to take part in a research study conducted by the Computational Memory Lab at the University of Pennsylvania. In this study, you will observe values from a stable random process, make forecasts about future values, and complete brief word-judgment tasks between periods. Full instructions will be provided on the next screen before the task begins.

The session includes . You will receive a base payment of $, plus a performance bonus of up to about $5 based on forecast accuracy. The study typically takes about 20–40 minutes. The main risk is mild fatigue from sustained attention; you may pause between trials as needed.

Your participation is voluntary, and you may stop at any time. If you have questions about your rights as a research participant, or about this study, please contact the principal investigator:

Michael Kahana, Ph.D.
University of Pennsylvania
Department of Psychology
425 S. University Ave.
Levin Building, Room 263
Philadelphia, PA 19104
kahanalab@gmail.com

If you email us, please include the keyword “Prolific” in the subject line.

By clicking Continue below, you indicate that you have read and understand the information above and consent to participate. Your response data will be used for research purposes.

Instructions

This study has two phases: an observation phase (where you observe values one-by-one), followed by a forecasting phase (where you predict the next value and then see the true value).

You will receive a score for each forecast based on how accurate it is. Your cumulative score across all forecasting rounds is then converted linearly into a bonus roughly between $0 and $5. You will also receive an additional base payment of $3.

Trial of

1 0 200

Type the current value:

Press Enter/Return to continue.

You will now enter your forecast for the next value.

Press Enter/Return to continue.

Trial of

Press Enter/Return to continue.

Total Score: 0

1 0 200

Press Enter/Return to continue.

Finished

Thank you for participating.

Payment summary

Total score:

Base pay: $

Bonus (from score): $

Total pay: $

Your completion code:

Session (debug)

Participant ID:

Condition (ρ):

Distractor task:

Download session JSON: