You will forecast values of a stable random process across multiple rounds. You will first observe 20 past realizations of the process and then will forecast for 40 periods thereafter. Between trials, you will complete a short word-judgment task. Your bonus depends on your forecast accuracy.

Instructions

This study has two phases: an observation phase (where you observe values one-by-one), followed by a forecasting phase (where you predict the next value and then see the true value).

You will receive a score for each forecast based on how accurate it is. Your cumulative score across all forecasting rounds is then converted linearly into a bonus roughly between $0 and $5. You will also receive an additional base payment of $3.

Between each period in both the observation and forecasting phases, you will complete a timed word-judgment task. You may use the left and right arrow keys as well as the mouse directly to complete this task. The duration varies from trial to trial.

Trial of

1 0 1000

Type the current value:

Press Enter/Return to continue.

You will now enter your forecast for the next value.

Press Enter/Return to continue.

Trial of

Press Enter/Return to continue.

Total Score: 0

1 0 1000

Press Enter/Return to continue.

← →

Finished

Thank you for participating.

Payment summary

Total score:

Base pay: $

Bonus (from score): $

Total pay: $

Your completion code:

Session (debug)

Participant ID:

Condition (ρ):

Distractor task:

Download session JSON: