Consent
You will forecast values of a stable random process across multiple rounds. You will first observe 20 past realizations of the process and then will forecast for 40 periods thereafter. Between trials, you will complete a short word-judgment task. Your bonus depends on your forecast accuracy.
Instructions
This study has two phases: an observation phase (where you observe values one-by-one), followed by a forecasting phase (where you predict the next value and then see the true value).
Your scoring per forecast is $S = 100 \times \max\bigl(0, 1 - \lvert \text{forecast} - \text{realization} \rvert / 20\bigr)$, and your total score is the sum across all forecasts. Your score will then be linearly converted to an additional bonus roughly between \$0 and \$5. You will also recieve a base payment of \$3.
Participant ID:
Condition (ρ):
Encoding:
Distractor:
Between each period in both the observation and forecasting phases, you will complete a timed word-judgment task. You may use the left and right arrow keys as well as the mouse directly to complete this task. The duration varies from trial to trial.
Observation phase
Observe the current value.
Trial of
Press Enter/Return to continue.
Forecasting phase
Trial of
You will now enter your forecast for the next value.
Press Enter/Return to continue.
Forecasting phase
Score: 0
Trial of
Press Enter/Return to continue.
Outcome
The true value is presented below along with the associated forecast error.
Score: 0
+0 this trial
Press Enter/Return to continue.
Finished
Thank you for participating.
Payment summary
Total score:
Base pay: $
Bonus (from score): $
Total pay: $
Your completion code:
Download session JSON (researcher / pilot only):